The Ministry of Agriculture updated its balance of the olive oil market in February, raising the initial October forecast of olive oil production for the current 2024/25 season by around 7% and by some 10,000 tonnes, to a total volume of 1,380,000 tonnes, which would mean 61.6% and 526,000 tonnes more than last season's sluggish crop (854,000 tonnes).
In its balance, the supply available this season also adds up to 190,389 tonnes of stocks on 1 October, as well as an estimate of imports of around 210,000 tonnes. In total, resources of just over 1.78 million tonnes.
As far as demand is concerned, this amounts to 1,485,000 tonnes, of which almost 68% or 990,000 tonnes would be destined for export and the remaining 32% or 495,000 tonnes would go to cover domestic consumption needs.
The final stocks expected for 30 September would be around 295,389 tonnes, 55.15% and 105,000 tonnes more than at the start of the current season.
Pomace oil
As for olive pomace oil, the MAPA forecasts a production of 125,000 tonnes, 9.75% and 11,100 tonnes more than in the previous season 2023/25.
This production started on 1 October with a stock of 48,200 tonnes, which added to estimated imports of 75,000 tonnes, would give rise to a total available supply in the 2024/25 season of 248,200 tonnes, just 1.3 and slightly more than 3,000 tonnes more than in the previous season.
Of this supply, some 129,000 tonnes, practically 52% of the total would be destined for export and the remaining 48% and 63,000 tonnes to meet the demand for domestic consumption, so that on 30 September the stock would be 56,200 tonnes, 16.5% and 8,000 tonnes more than at the start of 2024/25.
Table olives
Finally, in the olive market balance, the MAPA forecasts a table olive production of 532,715 tonnes, 30.8% and 125,314 tonnes more than in the previous weak season, which was very much affected by the drought.
The season of olives for canning began on 1 September with a stock of 272,117 tonnes, almost 16% and 51,313 tonnes less than at the beginning of the previous season 2023/24. If this quantity is added to the forecast for imports (55,000 tonnes), the available supply in this olive oil subsector would reach 859,831 tonnes, which is 6.4% and 51,780 tonnes more than at that time.
Of this available supply, the MAPA estimates that some 290,000 tonnes will go for export, 33.7% of the total, and another 190,000 tonnes for domestic consumption, 22.1% of the total, with a further 79,000 tonnes accounted for as adjustments and losses in processing and transformation.
On 30 August, according to this second MAPA balance sheet, stocks would remain at 300,831 tonnes, 10% 28,710 tonnes more than at the start of the current 2024/25 season.
Sentido Común Internet
Agrifood Comunicación
Solo disponible accediendo desde Safari