World olive oil production recovers to almost 3.4 Mt in 2024/25

World olive oil production in the current 2024/25 campaign will recover notably from the declines of the two previous campaigns, reaching just over 3.37 million tonnes, according to the latest forecast by the European Commission, based on its own data and that of the World Olive Oil Council (IOC).

This supply will represent 3.64% and 811,000 tonnes more olive oil on the market than in the previous season, and will also be 12% and almost 360,000 tonnes more than the average of the last five years of just over 3 million tonnes.

Of the volume of olive oil production, just over 1.97 Mt will be produced in the European Union, an increase of 28.8% compared to the previous season and just over 7% above the five-year average, while just over 1.4 million tonnes will be supplied from third countries, 36% more than in 2023/24 and 20% above the average for the last five years.

Some 65.4% of the EU's olive oil production will be offered from Spain, where 1.29 Mt is estimated for now, another 12.7% and 250,000 t from Greece, 42.86% more, which will exceed Italy, where just 224,000 t is expected, 11.4%, 31.7% less, followed by Portugal, with 195,000 t (+21.1%), close to 10% of the total. The rest came from France (6,300 t); Cyprus (3,800 t); Croatia (3,500 t), and Slovenia (600 t).

In third countries, with 1.4 million tonnes of olive oil forecast, the leading producer will again be Turkey, with 450,000 t, doubling the olive oil production of the previous season (+109%), followed in second place by Tunisia, with 340,000 t (+55%), the main supplier to the EU, partly thanks to the Inward Processing Traffic System (TPA), which allows oil to be bought in bulk in the Maghreb country for industrial processing in Europe with the obligation to export it outside the EU.

Further behind is Syria, with a forecast of 105,000 t (before the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime), an increase of 31% on the previous season; Morocco, with 90,000 t (-15%), due to the drought, and 116,000 t (+1%) from other third parties (Argentina, USA, Australia, Chile, Jordan, Israel, etc.).

According to the European Commission's market balance forecast, the 2024/25 olive crop year started on 1 October with a stock of just 297,000 tonnes, the lowest since at least the 2016/17 season, which was 323,000 tonnes.

This volume is in addition to a production of 1,973,000 t in the bedding season and a forecast of imports from third countries of some 215,000 t (+5% and 10,000 t more than in 2023/24), bringing the available supply to 2.485 million tonnes.

Faced with this foreseeable supply, the EC forecasts internal consumption of 1.326 million tonnes and extra-EU exports of 715,000 tonnes. In other words, a total marketing of 2.04 million tonnes, which would recover the final stock of the season (30 September 2025) to 438,000 tonnes, above the 410,000 tonnes of the 2022/23 season, but still a long way from the more than 600,000 tonnes of the 2018/19 to 2021/22 seasons.

Recovery in consumption

On the other hand, the European Commission forecasts, rather moderately, a recovery in world olive oil consumption, which would be close to 2.97 million tonnes, of which 1,326,000 t (+6.7% and 83,000 t more) would correspond to the European Union (44.7% of the total) while 1.64 million (55.3%) would be produced in third countries, where the figure has remained stable in the last campaigns.

World olive oil consumption in 2024/25 would therefore be close to the average (3.05 Mt) of the last five seasons, but in principle and according to these estimates, which may still change in the coming months, it would be below 3 Mt, a volume that had been exceeded in the previous seasons of 2019/20 (3.125 Mt); 2020/21 (3.117 Mt), and 2021/22 (3.19 Mt).

In the case of Spain, based on the figures communicated to the EC, the available supply of almost 1.72 million tonnes, of which 186,000 t would correspond to the stock at the start of the campaign (end of the previous one), another 1.29 Mt to the production forecast for the campaign and almost 243,000 t to the imports of olive oil forecast for the moment, of which 149,000 t would come from third countries and almost 93,000 t from EU countries (above all Portugal and some from Italy and Greece).

Against this supply, the forecast demand would be around 1.365 million tonnes, of which 33.7% and 460,000 tonnes would correspond to internal consumption of olive oil and the remaining 66.3% and 905,000 tonnes would be sales abroad (489,500 tonnes exported outside the EU and 415,500 tonnes sent to other EU countries).

This would leave a stock at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year of some 353,600 tonnes, 90.1% and 167,600 t higher than in the previous period, higher than the 248,300 t at the end of the 2022/23 marketing year, but lower than in previous marketing years.

Average price developments

According to the latest EC ‘dashboard’ statistics for last November, average prices of the three main categories have clearly moved downwards in the Spanish, Greek and Italian markets.

For extra virgin olive oil (EVOO), the average price in Spain was 615.1 €/100 kg, 16% lower than in October and 22% below the November 2023 average.

In Italy, EVOO averaged 861 €/100 kg, down 6% from a month earlier, but holding 2% above the same date last year, while in Greece, the average was 533.6 €/100 kg, down 21% and 27% respectively.

In virgin olive oil (VOO), the November average in Spain was 562.4 €/100 kg, 17% lower than in October and 18% below the November 2023 average, while Italy stood at 605 €/100 kg (-16% and -13%, respectively) and Greece dropped to 460 €/100 kg (-24% and -25%, respectively).

Finally, in lampante olive oil for industrial refining, the November average in Spain was 521.6 €/100 kg (-19% over October and -21% over November 2023); in Italy, 428 €/100 kg (-16% and -23%, respectively) and in Greece 370 €/100 kg (-21% and -16%, respectively).

It should be noted that these falling prices are even higher than the average prices in early December. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's short-term statistics, EVOO < 8º fell by an average of 2.78% per week at the beginning of the month, to a national average of 543.4 €/100 kg; EVOO from 0.8º to 2º, by 1.71%, to 500.88 €/100 kg, and EVOO > 2º, by a further 1.04%, to 471.4 €/100 kg.